The first evidence usually comes from CA or NY. This time it's CA. It's about to get the big one, but not an earthquake, though the earth will quake. The state is about to be in bankruptcy - Los Angelos, followed by many others. Detroit is in the same fix. And, it usually takes about six months for the rest of the nation to feel the shakeout from those places (perhaps sooner) and/or with similar events occuring elsewhere around the country. One thing you can be sure of is that they will pull every tool (and more) out of the box to keep the lid from exploding until after the November election. Bank on that. But, it's inevitable. It's all coming much faster than we think.
Remember that word - "exponential" that I've mentioned repeatedly previously. SS was supposed to be somewhat solvent thru 2016, but its insolvency came six years sooner than generally expected. That 2012 benchmark will also come much sooner. Remember, as real contraction deepens, so do revenues and the need to borrow exponentially more just to keep "existing" services running. That doesn't count new healthcare, more state and local bailouts, etc, etc. Hence why Treasury Geithner has been in Mumbai and headed to Bejing, not to discuss currency valuations like is being reported, but to drum up Treasury bonds whose sells are waning. The debt tsunami and our pinnacle, realization moment of unsustainability is about to become very visibly clear. It is practically at the doorstep now.
Personally, I am expecting intervention - something like another terrorist attack here or missiles going off elsewhere. And, IMO, likely in the biggest troublespot, the one place where implosion is about to take place - North Korea. But, who knows, it could be elsewhere. We're also about to get several trade salvos fired at us, starting with Brazil, China and others to follow shortly.
There is no stopping the trainwreck. It's just a matter of the speed in which it derails.
